Exit polls project tight Bengal race; BJP ahead in Assam, Congress gains in Kerala, Vijay rises in Tamil Nadu

While West Bengal appears headed for a nail-biting finish between Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress and the BJP, Tamil Nadu has thrown up the biggest surprise with actor-politician Vijay’s TVK emerging as a major contender in several surveys.

Assam shows signs of another comfortable BJP victory under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, Kerala polls indicate a possible Congress-led comeback, and Puducherry appears to favour the NDA once again.

With nearly 17 crore voters participating across 824 constituencies, the final results could reshape regional politics significantly.

West Bengal: Mamata vs BJP in razor-edge contest

West Bengal remains the most fiercely contested state in the exit polls, with agencies sharply divided over whether Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) can hold off an aggressive BJP challenge.

Several surveys such as P-MARQ, Matrize and Chanakya Strategies project the BJP emerging as the single largest party with numbers ranging between 146 and 175 seats in the 294-member Assembly.

However, Peoples Pulse predicts a TMC comeback with 177-187 seats, while some polls suggest an extremely close race where neither side has a decisive advantage.

The state has witnessed one of the bitterest campaigns of the election season, turning Bengal into the most unpredictable result of 2026.

Modi vs Mamata — all eyes on the Bengal poll outcome. Photo: AI generated.

Tamil Nadu: Vijay’s TVK creates political earthquake

Tamil Nadu has produced the biggest shock of the exit poll cycle.

The NDTV Axis My India survey projects actor Vijay’s debutant party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), winning 98-120 seats in the 234-member House — a sensational showing for a party contesting its first major election.

The ruling DMK-led alliance is projected at 92-110 seats, while the opposition AIADMK-led bloc could be reduced to 22-23 seats.

Vijay's TVK is predicted to give a tough fight to Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and DMK supremo MK Stalin. Photo: ChatGPT.

But other agencies disagree sharply. Peoples Pulse gives the DMK alliance a clear lead, while some polls place TVK in third position.

This makes Tamil Nadu one of the most volatile states, with Vijay emerging as the X-factor capable of redrawing the state’s political map.

Assam: BJP set for third straight victory

Assam is the clearest race among all five states.

Most exit polls predict the BJP-led NDA returning to power comfortably under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. NDTV Axis My India projects the alliance at 88-100 seats in the 126-member Assembly.

The BJP under Himanta Biswa Sarma's leadership is eyeing a third comeback in Assam. Photo: Official Facebook.

The Congress-led opposition alliance is estimated at 24-36 seats, suggesting it has struggled to mount a serious statewide challenge.

If these numbers hold, the BJP will secure another emphatic mandate in the Northeast’s most politically significant state.

Kerala: Congress-led UDF sees opening

Kerala’s exit polls indicate a likely comeback for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) after five years in opposition.

NDTV projects the UDF at 78-90 seats in the 140-member Assembly, enough for a comfortable majority. The ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) is estimated at 49-62 seats.

Kerala traditionally alternates between the UDF and LDF, and the exit polls suggest the pattern may return after the Left broke that trend in the last election.

Kerala traditionally alternates between the UDF and LDF. Photo: ChatGPT.

Puducherry: NDA holds advantage

In Puducherry, the NDA alliance led by the All India NR Congress appears ahead once again.

Most surveys project the alliance winning 16-20 seats in the 30-member Assembly, while the Congress-led opposition trails behind.

Though smaller in scale, Puducherry remains politically significant because of its strategic and symbolic value in southern politics.

What the Exit Polls suggest overall

West Bengal: Too close to call, battle between TMC and BJP
Tamil Nadu: Vijay’s TVK may emerge as kingmaker or frontrunner
Assam: BJP strongly favoured for another term
Kerala: Congress-led UDF ahead
Puducherry: NDA with clear edge

Health Warning: Exit Polls can be wrong

Exit polls are only projections based on post-voting surveys. Indian elections have repeatedly produced surprise verdicts that defy predictions. The real picture will emerge only when counting begins.