BJP–Shinde's Sena set for big BMC win! Exit polls predict a major shift in Mumbai politics

The reunited Thackeray cousins—Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray—are projected to consolidate Maratha and Muslim votes, but appear to have failed in stemming a strong surge by the BJP among North and South Indian voters.

Exit polls also suggest that women and young voters have overwhelmingly backed the BJP, a trend increasingly seen across recent elections.

The BMC, often described as Asia’s wealthiest municipal corporation with a budget comparable to a small Indian state, was last elected in 2017.

At the time, the then-united Shiv Sena retained control of the 227-member body, continuing a grip that had lasted for decades.

Eight years later, following the split in the Shiv Sena and dramatic realignments in Maharashtra politics, exit polls indicate a potential sea change.

If these projections hold, the BJP will have decisively filled the political vacuum in Mumbai, while the Thackeray brothers’ reunion—after nearly 20 years—may fall short of reclaiming the Sena’s legacy and institutional power.

Exit Poll Projections

The majority mark in the BMC is 114 seats.

JVC Exit Poll:

BJP: 138 seats
Shiv Sena (UBT)–MNS alliance: 59 seats
Congress: 23 seats

Axis My India:

BJP–Shinde Sena alliance: 131–151 seats
Sena (UBT)–MNS alliance: 58–68 seats

Sakal Poll:

BJP–Sena alliance: 119 seats
Sena (UBT): 75 seats
Congress: up to 20 seats

Janmat Exit Poll:

BJP–Sena alliance: 138 seats
Opposition alliance led by Uddhav and Raj Thackeray: 62 seats
Congress: around 20 seats

Elections were also held on the same day in 28 other civic bodies across Maharashtra, all pending since 2017. Counting of votes will take place on Friday.

As always, exit polls are not definitive—but if these projections translate into results, Mumbai’s civic politics may be on the brink of its most dramatic transformation in decades.