Azerbaijan Airlines crash: Experts suggest possible missile strike by Russia near Kazakhstan

The crash claimed the lives of 38 out of the 67 people on board, which included 62 passengers and five crew members. Among the 29 survivors were two young girls aged 11 and 16.

An inquiry is ongoing, but aviation experts cited in foreign media reports, including the Wall Street Journal, Euronews, and AFP, pointed to damage on the plane consistent with shrapnel from missiles. Holes in the fuselage and marks on the tail section have been highlighted as evidence supporting this theory.

A video shared on X by Clash Report, a platform covering military conflicts, showed multiple large holes in the fuselage, ranging from pinprick-sized to several inches wide.

Experts also noted the plane was flying into an area where Ukrainian drone activity had been reported.

Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, is heavily defended by anti-aircraft weaponry, making it a potential flashpoint.

Russian military blogger Yury Podolyaka, cited by AFP, remarked that the damage to the wreckage was consistent with an "anti-aircraft missile system." He added that the plane might have been "accidentally struck by an air-defence missile system."

Matt Borie, Chief Intelligence Officer at the UK-based aviation risk management firm Osprey Flight Solutions, told the Wall Street Journal that "the wreckage and circumstances around airspace security in southwest Russia indicates... some form of antiaircraft fire hit the aircraft."

Russian media outlet Meduza, as referenced by The Kyiv Independent, echoed these observations.

Their report indicated that the damage resembled impacts caused by surface-to-air missiles, citing similar incidents involving civilian and military aircraft.

Unverified reports suggest that Grozny had been targeted by Ukrainian drones weeks before the crash.

This has led to speculation that Russian air defences might have mistaken the Azerbaijan Airlines plane for a drone, potentially prompting an attack.

Some survivors, seated in the tail section, claimed to have heard loud explosions shortly after the plane’s request to land at Grozny airport was denied.

The UK's Telegraph reported that these explosions may have been caused by the plane's oxygen tanks detonating mid-air.

The aircraft then turned back across the Caspian Sea, possibly attempting to return to Kazakhstan.

However, a second emergency—possibly involving a hydraulics failure—forced a request to land at Aqtau. The plane crashed three kilometres from the airport.

Frightening visuals shared online showed the plane struggling to maintain altitude, slipping into a nosedive, and crashing into a field.

Azerbaijan Airlines initially attributed the crash to a bird strike but later withdrew the statement.

The plane’s black box has been recovered, and data from the flight and voice recorders is being examined as part of the investigation.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov urged patience, stating, "We need to await the end of the investigation," as reported by AFP. Kazakh Senate Speaker Maulen Ashimbayev, quoted by Russia’s TASS news agency, remarked that it is "not possible" to determine the cause of the crash at this stage. "Real experts are looking... they will make their conclusions. Neither Kazakhstan nor Russia nor Azerbaijan, of course, are interested in hiding information. It will be brought to the public," he added.