COVID19
COVID-19 second wave slowing down in India: IIT(K) experts
Kanpur/UNI: Team of experts from IIT Kanpur, who are working on Covid-19 prediction model, have claimed that the second wave was slowing down in India.
Profs. Rajesh Ranjan and Mahendra Verma, along with their team at IITKanpur, are working to provide model “Covid-19 Prediction Model” for forecasts up to district-wise granularity.
They have also launched a website https://covid19-forecast.org for updated daily forecasts, a press statenent by IIT K said here on Tuesday.
According to the latest model observations , India infection has peaked in the first week of May and is currently on steep decline except for a few states.
The average count of daily cases has become nearly 60 per cent of its value on May 8, 2021 due to interventions.
It says Test positivity rate (TPR) has also reduced from very high value of about 23% on May 8, 2021 to about 12% now due to increased daily testing capacity.
The Case fatality rate (CFR) had increased to nearly 1.7% but is expected to go down soon with decrease in active infections.
High TPR ( >20%) states identified are Goa, Karnataka, Kerala, West Bengal, Tamilnadu, Odisha and Northeast states.
Low TPR (< 10%) states are UP, Delhi, Gujarat, Bihar, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, MP, Chhatisgarh, J&K, Punjab, Telangana and Uttarakhand.
Lowest CFRs were recorded in Odisha (0.2%), Kerala (0.5%) while highest CFRs are in Delhi (8%) and Maharashtra (3.7%).
It further opined that states yet to saturate are West Bengal, Odisha along with all Northeast states.
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