Reliance Jio surpasses China Mobile as world's largest mobile operator

In the January-March quarter, the total traffic on the Jio network reached 40.9 Exabytes, exceeding China Mobile's 38 Exabytes, according to data from global analytics firm Tefficient, Moneycontrol reported.

China Mobile is a Chinese state-owned telecommunications company.

Jio, the telecom arm of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), boasts the world's second-largest 5G subscriber base at 108 million, with over 28% of its total wireless data traffic attributed to 5G users, the company's analyst said in presentation on Monday, reported Moneycontrol.

Analysts anticipate Jio's continued market share growth, projecting its subscriber base to reach 490-500 million by FY25.

As the 5G rollout concludes, they expect Jio to focus on monetizing 5G services.

In the fourth quarter of FY24, the telco's total subscriber base expanded to 481 million, with a net addition of 10.9 million subscribers.

Airtel, in comparison, has 345.6 million subscribers, while Vodafone Idea's base stands at 215 million.

“Any certain timeline (currently expected in 2025) on the listing of the Jio IPO will also be a key catalyst for the stock. The increase of ARPU by Rs 10 will expand earnings by 4-5%. ARPU for Jio to increase by ~30% from FY23-26,” it added.

In a separate analysis, Emkay anticipates that Jio's robust addition of subscribers will persist, propelled by competitive pricing of its plans and the introduction of 5G, which could attract high ARPU customers, particularly postpaid subscribers, given Vi's delayed 5G rollout, according to the Moneycontrol report.

Emkay highlights the availability of the JioBharat phone at an appealing price point, aimed at current 2G users, as a driver for subscriber growth.

Analysts suggest that Jio's key priorities for FY25 will include accelerating the expansion of its home broadband segment through the growth of JioFiber and JioAirFiber subscriber bases, as well as scaling up digital services.

Jio currently holds the position of India's largest wired broadband operator, with a subscriber base 43 percent larger than that of Bharti Airtel as of February 2024.

“We raise our ARPU estimates by 1-2% and expect ARPUs to rise at 9% Cagr over FY24-27 to Rs235 by FY27, led by a 20% tariff hike in 2QFY25 and 10% in 2QFY27.”

Analysts said that Jio’s key focus areas for FY25 would also include accelerating the growth of the home broadband segment through JioFiber and JioAirFiber subscriber base and scaling up digital services.

Jio is India's largest wired broadband operator, with its subscriber base 43 percent higher than Bharti Airtel's as of February 2024.

“Jio continues to see strong traction in its FTTH business, with estimated net adds of 800,000 during the quarter," Goldman Sachs said in a note, reported Moneycontrol.

Jio has rolled out JioAirFiber across 5,900 towns, which is helping drive demand for home broadband.

Emkay Research said content bundling drives strong engagement for the JioAirFiber service. “Average daily data usage for AirFiber subscribers is ~13GB (monthly usage of 400GB per capita per month), which is 30 percent higher than that for JioFiber subscribers. It is seeing traction from Tier-2 towns,” it said in a note.

Analysts at JP Morgan said that the success of AirFiber for Jio will lead Bharti Airtel to accelerate the roll-outs of FWA, said the report.