Covid-19 peak likely by mid-May: SBI report

On Friday, India registered a record jump of 379,257 in fresh coronavirus cases and 3,645 fatalities over the last 24 hours, with active cases reaching 30.84 lakh.

"However, there is a good news amidst all the gloom. It may be noted that India’s recovery rate that was at 97% at the beginning of the second wave, is now at 82.5%. This 14.5% reduction in recovery rate has happened over a period of 69 days. Based on other countries experience we believe India might reach its second peak when the recovery rate will be at 77.8%," the report said.

"Given that every 1% reduction in recovery rate takes around 4.5 days, it translates into around 20 days from now. Also our estimate shows that every 1% reduction in recovery rate increases active cases by 1.85 lakhs. Thus we believe peak of second wave would come around mid-May with active cases reaching around 36 lakhs at that point of time."

As the production capacity of vaccines is being increased in India and new vaccines are imported, the analysis noted that "a total of 1048 million doses can be given in India by October 21 in which 15% of the population can be fully vaccinated and 63% can get their first shot".

"Experience of other countries show infections stabilise after 15% of population receive second dose," the report added.

The report also stated that SBI business activity Index which showed a downward trend in April’21 has now touched a new low of 75.7, the level it reached in August 2020 and currently a clear 24.3 per cent below from the pre pandemic level.

 "This indicates the disruption caused by increased lockdowns/ restrictions imposed in various states is now having a meaningful impact on economic activity," it underlined.

With many states now clamping partial lockdowns, the economists have changed India's FY22 growth estimates at 10.4% real GDP and 14.2% nominal GDP, said reports.